Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Election Reaction: Polarization of Congress

Among the many impacts of the 2010 Midterms appears to be a further polarization of Congress. Many of the Democratic losses last night came from moderate Democrats. In addition, due to the influence of the Tea Party, many Republican victories went to Tea Party backed candidates or establishment candidates who moved further to the right in order to appeal to their more conservative base. This leaves fewer moderates between the conservative and liberal sides, raising questions as to how this will affect the coming term and even the lame duck session.

One of the biggest issues is how the Tea Party will interact with the establishment, particularly the GOP. There has been a lot of talk about shaking things up and changing Washington coming from newly elected conservatives. However, Tea Party candidates are still a small minority in Congress and will need to rely on conservative establishment members if they hope to have a real impact in the immediate future. It will be a fine line between upholding the conservative principles that got them elected, and working within the existing system to implement the policies that they promote. The key will be how the Republican party reacts to the new members. Many believe that the party's best hope is to realign themselves more to the right, embrace the movement and get back to their conservative roots. Others feel that the only way to pass legislation is with the help of the establishment and that compromise and moderation will be forced upon the new class. It would seem that the latter option is very dangerous. If voters feel that the change the conservative candidates peddled was merely rhetoric and that they are corrupted by the system, 2012 could spell trouble for the GOP. Either another round of more conservative Tea Party candidates will beat out established candidates in primaries, or conservatives will become disillusioned and just stay home. In any case, the Republicans have a choice to make.

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